root
317 lines
8.2 KiB
Python
317 lines
8.2 KiB
Python
"""
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Distance calculation service based on search and rescue statistics.
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Implements distance formulas and prior probabilities based on:
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- PSO EXTREMUM data (400 cases, 2015)
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- Age-based movement speeds
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- Terrain and weather modifiers
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"""
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from typing import Dict
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def calculate_max_distance(case_data: dict) -> float:
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"""
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Calculate maximum probable distance using the formula:
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Distance = Time × НормС × СП × СКД × СУ × СУТ × ВВС × ВП
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Where:
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- Time: elapsed time in hours
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- НормС: base speed by age (km/h)
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- СП: terrain coefficient
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- СКД: coefficient for diagnosis (not implemented yet)
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- СУ: coefficient for urgency (not implemented yet)
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- СУТ: fatigue coefficient (5% reduction per hour)
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- ВВС: time of day coefficient
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- ВП: weather coefficient
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Args:
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case_data: Dictionary with case information
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- age: age in years
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- elapsed_hours: time elapsed since last seen
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- terrain_primary: terrain type
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- time_of_day: time of day (день/ночь/сумерки)
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- weather: weather conditions
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Returns:
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Maximum probable distance in kilometers
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"""
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# Extract data
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age = case_data.get('age', 10)
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elapsed_hours = case_data.get('elapsed_hours', 1.0)
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terrain = case_data.get('terrain_primary', 'лес')
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time_of_day = case_data.get('time_of_day', 'день')
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weather = case_data.get('weather', 'нет')
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# НормС - Base speed by age (km/h)
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base_speed = get_base_speed(age)
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# СП - Terrain coefficient
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terrain_coef = get_terrain_coefficient(terrain)
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# СКД - Diagnosis coefficient (placeholder, can be expanded)
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diagnosis_coef = 1.0
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# СУ - Urgency coefficient (placeholder, can be expanded)
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urgency_coef = 1.0
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# СУТ - Fatigue coefficient (5% reduction per hour)
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fatigue_coef = max(0.3, 1.0 - (0.05 * elapsed_hours))
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# ВВС - Time of day coefficient
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time_coef = get_time_of_day_coefficient(time_of_day)
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# ВП - Weather coefficient
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weather_coef = get_weather_coefficient(weather)
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# Calculate distance
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distance = (
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elapsed_hours *
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base_speed *
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terrain_coef *
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diagnosis_coef *
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urgency_coef *
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fatigue_coef *
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time_coef *
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weather_coef
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)
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return round(distance, 2)
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def get_base_speed(age: int) -> float:
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"""
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Get base movement speed by age (НормС).
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Args:
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age: Age in years
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Returns:
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Base speed in km/h
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"""
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# Скорость смещения потерявшегося ребёнка (не скорость ходьбы)
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# ПСО ЭКСТРЕМУМ: 94% найдены в пределах 3 км
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if age <= 2:
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return 1.0
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elif age <= 5:
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return 2.0
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elif age <= 8:
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return 3.0
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elif age <= 12:
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return 4.0
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elif age <= 15:
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return 5.0
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elif age <= 17:
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return 5.5
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elif age <= 64:
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return 5.0
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else: # 65+
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return 3.0
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def get_terrain_coefficient(terrain: str) -> float:
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"""
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Get terrain movement coefficient (СП).
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Args:
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terrain: Terrain type
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Returns:
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Terrain coefficient (0.0 - 1.0)
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"""
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terrain_lower = terrain.lower()
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terrain_map = {
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'лесная дорога': 0.8,
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'сложный лес': 0.25,
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'густой лес': 0.25,
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'простой лес': 0.5,
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'лес': 0.5,
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'дорога': 0.8,
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'тропа': 0.8,
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'болото': 0.2,
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'поле': 0.9,
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'луг': 0.9,
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'город': 1.0,
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'населённый пункт': 1.0,
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'горы': 0.3,
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'овраг': 0.3
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}
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for key, value in terrain_map.items():
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if key in terrain_lower:
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return value
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# Default for unknown terrain
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return 0.5
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def get_time_of_day_coefficient(time_of_day: str) -> float:
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"""
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Get time of day movement coefficient (ВВС).
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Args:
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time_of_day: Time of day
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Returns:
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Time coefficient (0.0 - 1.0)
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"""
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time_lower = time_of_day.lower()
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if 'ночь' in time_lower:
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return 0.5
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elif 'сумерки' in time_lower or 'вечер' in time_lower:
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return 0.5
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else: # день
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return 1.0
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def get_weather_coefficient(weather: str) -> float:
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"""
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Get weather movement coefficient (ВП).
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Args:
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weather: Weather conditions
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Returns:
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Weather coefficient (0.0 - 1.0)
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"""
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weather_lower = weather.lower()
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if 'ливень' in weather_lower or 'сильный дождь' in weather_lower:
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return 0.6
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elif 'дождь' in weather_lower:
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return 0.8
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elif 'туман' in weather_lower:
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return 0.7
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elif 'снег' in weather_lower or 'метель' in weather_lower:
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return 0.6
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elif 'жара' in weather_lower:
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return 0.8
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else: # нет / ясно
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return 1.0
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def get_distance_priors(age_years: int) -> Dict[str, float]:
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"""
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Get prior probabilities for distance zones based on age.
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Based on PSO EXTREMUM data (400 cases, 2015).
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Args:
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age_years: Age in years
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Returns:
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Dictionary with distance zone probabilities
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"""
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if age_years < 8:
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# До 8 лет - дети младшего возраста
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return {
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'0_500m': 0.45,
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'500_1500m': 0.35,
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'1500_2500m': 0.15,
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'2500_3500m': 0.04,
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'3500_plus': 0.01
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}
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elif age_years <= 12:
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# 8-12 лет - дети среднего возраста
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return {
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'0_500m': 0.28,
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'500_1500m': 0.25,
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'1500_2500m': 0.22,
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'2500_3500m': 0.19,
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'3500_5000m': 0.03,
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'5000_plus': 0.03
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}
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elif age_years <= 17:
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# 13-17 лет - подростки
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return {
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'0_500m': 0.15,
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'500_1500m': 0.20,
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'1500_2500m': 0.25,
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'2500_3500m': 0.20,
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'3500_5000m': 0.12,
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'5000_plus': 0.08
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}
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elif age_years <= 64:
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# 18-64 года - взрослые
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return {
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'0_500m': 0.12,
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'500_1500m': 0.18,
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'1500_2500m': 0.22,
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'2500_3500m': 0.20,
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'3500_5000m': 0.15,
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'5000_plus': 0.13
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}
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else:
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# 65+ лет - пожилые
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return {
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'0_500m': 0.35,
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'500_1500m': 0.30,
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'1500_2500m': 0.20,
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'2500_3500m': 0.10,
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'3500_5000m': 0.03,
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'5000_plus': 0.02
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}
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def get_distance_zone(distance_km: float) -> str:
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"""
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Get distance zone name for a given distance.
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Args:
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distance_km: Distance in kilometers
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Returns:
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Zone name
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"""
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if distance_km < 0.5:
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return '0_500m'
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elif distance_km < 1.5:
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return '500_1500m'
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elif distance_km < 2.5:
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return '1500_2500m'
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elif distance_km < 3.5:
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return '2500_3500m'
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elif distance_km < 5.0:
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return '3500_5000m'
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else:
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return '5000_plus'
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def get_distance_statistics(age_years: int, elapsed_hours: float, terrain: str) -> Dict:
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"""
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Get comprehensive distance statistics for a case.
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Args:
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age_years: Age in years
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elapsed_hours: Time elapsed since last seen
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terrain: Terrain type
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Returns:
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Dictionary with distance statistics
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"""
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# Calculate max distance
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case_data = {
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'age': age_years,
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'elapsed_hours': elapsed_hours,
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'terrain_primary': terrain,
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'time_of_day': 'день',
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'weather': 'нет'
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}
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max_distance = calculate_max_distance(case_data)
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# Get priors
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priors = get_distance_priors(age_years)
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# Get current zone
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current_zone = get_distance_zone(max_distance)
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return {
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'max_distance_km': max_distance,
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'current_zone': current_zone,
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'zone_probability': priors.get(current_zone, 0.0),
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'all_priors': priors,
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'base_speed_kmh': get_base_speed(age_years),
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'terrain_coefficient': get_terrain_coefficient(terrain)
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}
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